Being a runner is a lot of fun. Like with every sport, there are frontrunners (like my pun?), but even within running events, few are as demanding as the marathons, which are more a test of control, than they are of speed. In short-distance races, you can win by “five-thousandths” of a second (say hello, Noah Lyles), and by maintaining your pace and energy in long distances.
Running is fun, but even when we’re not in the race, we can still win with our favorites through online betting. Winning always has a thrill, even more when there’s skin in the game, and that is why we have written this piece to explain how odds work in running events.
What are Odds in Betting?
In betting, odds refer to the probability of a set outcome being realized. Within running, it means the probability of an athlete winning the race; in other words, the odds of the athlete winning the race.
They are created by bookmakers (bookies) who deploy mathematical models to arrive at a value for each competitor in the race.
The way odds work is like this: The bigger the number assigned to a runner in a race, the smaller the chances of that runner winning that race. However, if you had bet on the player, your winning would be greater than if you had bet on someone with better “odds of winning”.
How Odds are Calculated
Odds are assigned individually for each race. They are determined by considering various important factors that influence the runner’s chances of winning or making it to the podium.
These factors include:
- Fellow competitors’ running records and present condition.
- The subject’s past performances (including what records they might have and when they earned those records).
- The conditions of the course and how they have historically affected the subject’s performances.
- Fitness reports and the runner’s recent form.
These variables and others are put into the bookmaker’s model, which then determines the value of the runner’s odds.
Due to how much external conditions influence race outcomes, race odds also fluctuate when conditions/variables change, even right before the race. A windy day might favor a certain kind of runner and be a disservice to another. Such a change can affect the outcome entirely and change every participant’s odds.
What Odds Mean In Different Markets
Betting markets have different ways of expressing odds which can be unfamiliar for those who are new to it. The most common ways of expressing betting odds are either:
-
- Moneyline Odds: The favorite of the American market. The values take their bearing from $100. When you see +200 odds means that a win on your $100 stake gets you $200 on it; -350 odds means that you must bet $350 to win $100 on it.
- Fractional Odds: Used commonly in the UK market. It takes its bearing from the denominator. For example, a runner with odds of 97/28 would mean that for a £28 stake you can win £97, or £3.46 on a £1 stake.
- Decimal Odds: This format is commonly used in European markets. Your potential winning is simply calculated by multiplying your stake by the odds value. This means that a €10 stake on a runner with 4.65 odds can win you €46.5.
What Running Odds Mean
Due to the number of participants in a race, odds are presented as each runner’s probability of winning relative to the other participants. Hence, the odds values are assigned after the bookmaker has factored in their profit margins.
Here’s how it works: Take an 8-lane 100 m race, for example, going by the sum of all probabilities being 100%, the bookmaker then builds in an overround on each odds value, which when added up totals over 100% (usually between 110-120%), which ensures their profits no matter the outcome of the race.
Let’s consider these examples for a 100 m race.
Assuming that the real probability of the favorite to win is 35%. Here’s how the bookmaker would present the odds of the participants:
| Position | Fair probability of Winning (%) | Book probability (112% overround) | Moneyline Odds | Fractional Odds (approx) | Decimal Odds |
| 1st | 35 | 39.2% | +155 | ≅31/20 | 2.551 |
| 2nd | 20 | 22.4% | +346 | ≅45/13 | 4.464 |
| 3rd | 15 | 16.8% | +495 | ≅99/20 | 5.952 |
| 4th | 10 | 11.2% | +793 | ≅111/14 | 8.929 |
| 5th | 7 | 7.84% | +1176 | ≅47/4 | 12.755 |
| 6th | 6 | 6.72% | +1388 | ≅236/17 | 14.881 |
| 7th | 4 | 4.48 | +2132 | ≅405/19 | 22.321 |
| 8th | 3 | 3.36% | +2876 | ≅489/17 | 29.762 |